The simulator · ranges, not promises

The dividend, honestly

The answer is a curve, never a number. Distributions begin small, because the Reserve preserves its capital before it distributes, by law (Annex II), and grow as warrants crystallise and returns compound. Every input below carries its uncertainty; the band shows the pessimistic-to-optimistic range, and the sceptic button sets every input against us.

Automated revenue reaching the thresholds (EUR bn/yr, by year 5) 150

Nobody knows this number. It depends on how fast hyper-automated firms cross the Article 3 thresholds; the range spans scepticism to boom.

Median years to a liquidity event 7

Warrants crystallise only when a designated firm lists or is sold (Article 5). Private firms can stay private a long time; the instrument waits.

Portfolio real return (%/yr) 4

The Norway fund’s long-run real return is the reference; Annex II retains enough to preserve real capital before anything is distributed.

Growth of covered activity after the first wave (%/yr) 5

New firms keep crossing the Article 3 thresholds and covered firms keep growing. Zero would mean no firm ever qualifies again.

Ranges, not promises. The forecast button applies published projections of AI value (PwC, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey) whose error bars are measured in trillions; they are scenario inputs here, never the law's premise, and the sceptic button stays one click away. If the phenomenon stays small, the dividend stays small, and Article 14(3) obliges the Commission to report exactly that and propose amendment or repeal.

Every assumption in this model

3 % of designated firm value enters the Reserve at each firm’s first liquidity event (fixed by Article 5(2)); firm value is taken as ten times covered revenue, a deliberate round number.
Designated value crystallises as a continuing flow: the first wave over ten years from the median event lag, later cohorts growing at the rate you set; eligible adults: 350 million (Eurostat, Union citizens 18+).
Distributions follow Annex II exactly, as amended on the record: real capital preserved first, a three-year smoothing collar floored at 2 % of the Reserve's capital, no leverage, everything in constant 2026 euros.
The band runs the same arithmetic at the pessimistic and optimistic ends of your inputs. Nothing here is a promise; the model is open source.